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New data pushes coronavirus peak in Texas to near end of April

Debbie Strauss, Executive Producer, HOUSTON

Aaron Barker, Senior Digital Editor

Tags: Coronavirus, Texas, CDC
A scientist presents an antibody test for coronavirus in a laboratory of the Leibniz Institute of Photonic Technology (Leibniz IPHT) at the InfectoGnostics research campus in Jena, Germany, Friday, April 3, 2020. An international team of researchers with the participation of the Jena Leibniz Institute of Photonic Technology (Leibniz IPHT) has developed a rapid antibody test for the new coronavirus. By means of a blood sample, the test shows within ten minutes whether a person is acutely infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (IgM antibody) or already immune to it (IgG antibody). The strip test is manufactured by the diagnostics company Senova in Weimar and is already on the market. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. (AP Photo/Jens Meyer) (Jens Meyer, Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

HOUSTON – New data released by researchers Friday pushed the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Texas to nearly the end of April.

The model provided by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine now predicts the peak of the outbreak in Texas will happen on April 26.

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RELATED LINK: Track the peak coronavirus prediction model

This is the model that many government entities, including in Houston and Harris County, use to help make plans to deal with the pandemic. The model is used in conjunction with local data.

Earlier, the peak was predicted to happen on May 6, May 2, May 22, April 19 and April 22.

Why the change?

As more data about COVID-19 becomes available, the projections should theoretically get more accurate. So, if your workplace or local municipality suggests a certain day for a peak, ask officials what model or models they are following.

Projecting a peak date for COVID-19 is like tracking a hurricane -- you can’t look at the one line for landfall, you have to consider the entire “cone of uncertainty.” In the case of COVID-19, look at the bottom, middle and top for projections.

Copyright 2020 by KSAT - All rights reserved.

About the Authors
Debbie Strauss headshot

Award-winning broadcast journalist covering local, regional, national and international stories. Recognized in the industry for subject matter expertise including: Legal/Court Research, the Space Industry, Education, Environmental Issues, Underserved Populations and Data Visualization.

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