HURRICANES


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic
Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave just inland over Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off of the west African coast later today. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by late Sunday or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, medium, 60 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days, low, 20 percent.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Stewart

Tropics Watch Satellite

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean with axis along 31W from 20N southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 29W and 36W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean with axis along 47W from 18N southward, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 44W and 48W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean with axis along 59W from 18N southward, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave's axis mainly south of 12N.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea with axis along 79W from 15N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W to 07N55W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted near the coast of Africa from 05N to 14N and east of 22W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf waters from 30N84W to a 1014 mb low near 29N85W to 28N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the low mainly north of 25N and east of 86W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas up to 6 ft are near this activity.

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the Straits of Florida across the central Gulf to central Mexico. Convergent SE winds near the ridge axis are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the east-central Gulf and Florida Peninsula. An upper-level low near the eastern coast of Mexico at 28N98W is supporting scattered showers and across the western Gulf. The surface ridge continues to support gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft across the central and S Gulf.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary across the northern Gulf is expected to continue across the area through the end of the week while weakening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the northern half of the basin through Friday. Moderate to fresh E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Mon night in association with a diurnal trough. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.

Enhanced by divergent winds associated with an upper-level low near Jamaica at 15N768, convergent trade winds are supporting scattered showers across the western half of the basin.

The pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean continues to support moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft in this area. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will increase slightly, pulsing to strong through Fri night near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Expect fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras from late afternoon through the nighttime hours, each day through Fri night. Fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this weekend. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Convergent SW winds to the south of a stationary front off the Carolina coast to northeast Florida are supporting scattered showers west of 77W. Convergent trade winds are triggering similar conditions near the Bahamas.

The subtropical ridge related to the Bermuda-Azores high persists over the north central and western Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the Atlantic waters elsewhere north of the convergence zone, with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence zone, except locally fresh between 30W and 45W. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will continue weakening through the end of the week. Fresh southwest winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue just east of the front offshore NE Florida. Fresh winds will pulse north of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, Thu night and Fri night. Elsewhere, a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda-Azores high will persist for the next several days.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature