HURRICANES


TROPICS WATCH


Gulf
Atlantic
Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Gale-force winds are noted over the waters off Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are peaking near 16 ft prevail over this area. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue through the day. Winds and seas will decrease this evening, with winds diminishing below gale force. Marine conditions will continue to improve through early this week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings.

Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N between 14W to 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 36W and 42W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted north of 15N between 50W to 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 74W south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 72W and 76W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 07N36W. It resumes from 07N43W to 05N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 13N and between 20W and 37W, and from 05N to 08N between 43W to 50W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Aside from the gale-force winds off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, fresh to strong winds prevail west of the front. Seas west of the front are in the 8-11 ft range south of 25N, and 5-8 ft elsewhere west of the front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is concentrated south of 23N between 90W-96W in the Bay of Campeche. East of the front, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Gale-force N winds off of Veracruz, Mexico are expected to continue through sunset today. Winds will gradually veer to the E late Mon through Tue as the front becomes aligned from just offshore of the N Yucatan Peninsula through the Straits of Florida and dissipates.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Tropical Wave Section for more information.

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters. Scattered showers are noted in the western Caribbean and along the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean waters south of 14N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin will lead to tranquil marine conditions through early Mon. A cold front has entered the NW Atlc overnight and will move SE through early Wed before stalling from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida. High pressure building in the wake of the front will bring a return to moderate trade winds to the Caribbean Mon night through Tue and then moderate to fresh winds late Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends across the Atlantic waters from 31N74W to central Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted west of the front with isolated showers along the boundary. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N37W to 23N48W, with a trough continuing to north of Hispaniola, near 21N68W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 180 nm east of the front and north of 19N. A surface trough is noted behind the front from 31N40W to 29N47W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are also noted east and southeast of the front. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. N of 20N and east of 50W, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N and west of 50W, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail.

Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low ash concentrations is moving NW. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes /la-palma/

For the forecast west of 65W, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the W Atlc to the SW of Bermuda. A cold front across the NW waters to central Florida will continue moving southeastward across most of FL tonight, reaching from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Mon morning. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front through Mon morning. High pres will shift ESE across the W Atlc along 31N-32N Tue through Wed while the front stalls from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Torres

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature