Special Features

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period northwest swell is impacting the discussion waters, producing rough to very rough seas. Seas 12 ft or greater associated to the swell are found N of 30N65W to 26N60W to 30N35W. Seas are now peaking near 18 ft north of 30N between 65W and 70W. Seas greater than 12 ft associated to the swell will spread SE through the middle of the week before subsiding.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 05N09W to 05N12W, where it transitions to ITCZ and continues to 02N30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 10W and 27W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered S of Louisiana. A cold front extends from the low to near Tampico, Mexico, while a warm front extends to the SE Gulf. Fresh to strong winds prevail across much of the Gulf waters, except the SW Gulf where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except foe 2-3 ft in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the low will lift northeast through the early part of the week, dragging a cold front across the southern Gulf through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, possibly reaching near-gale force off the coast of Veracruz tonight. The front will stall and become diffuse over the southern Gulf through mid-week. Winds and seas will diminish Thu as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, where seas are in the 5-8 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are noted. Moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, large long- period northerly swell moving through the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will subside early today. Meanwhile, high pressure building across the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia through the middle of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a significant swell in the ATLC waters.

A cold front extending from 31N44W to 26N55W to 24N70W continues as a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Gale force winds E of the front have shifted N of the area. Fresh to near gale force winds are over the waters N of 26N between 38W and 60W. Aside from the areas mentioned above, seas are 8 ft or greater N of 23N between 55W and 70W, and between 23W and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds are E of 30W, and gentle to moderate elsewhere E of 65W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will stall along roughly 21N today where it will dissipate Tue. Winds will decrease as high pressure builds over the basin today. Large swell east of 70W will gradually subside west of 60W through late Tue. A reinforcing front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida Wed, before stalling along 22N through Thu. Another round of large, long- period NW to N swell will follow the reinforcing front over the waters east of 75W Thu, and shift to east of 55W by late Fri.

Posted 1 day, 7 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al