Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N19W through 02N35W to near the French Guiana coast at 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries between 15W-46W. A surface trough is analyzed along 53W and S of 14N. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevail from 45W-53W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1017 mb high at the east-central Gulf to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas exist at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure over eastern Gulf will drift northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and merge with the Atlantic ridge through Fri. This will maintain fresh to briefly strong SE to S return flow across most of the western Gulf through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A surface ridge N of the area is sustaining trade winds across the entire basin. Convergent trades are producing scattered showers near the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist elsewhere in the northwestern basin, including waters near the Windward Passage. Mostly fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen the south-central and southeastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate ENE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure across the western Atlantic extending a ridge southwestward into the Bahamas will support fresh trades E of 80W through today. The high pressure will then slide SE and across the central Atlantic subtropical waters through the weekend, which will keep mainly moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds through the weekend. Fresh trades and moderate to rough seas in easterly trade wind swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds will develop each night across the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough is analyzed along 28N between 36W-62W. Scattered showers are occurring within 90 nm of the boundary mainly E of 45W. Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection southwest of Bermuda, north of 28N between 64W and 75W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are evident near the surface trough, north of 25N between 35W and 65W. A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1021 mb high near 30N27W to beyond the central Bahamas. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft from 22N to 28N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE to SSW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 22N and west of 65W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas of 6 to 9 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail S of 25N and E of 75W, while light to moderate SE winds prevail elsewhere. The high will slide SE and into the central Atlantic through the upcoming weekend, with ridging extending westward into central Florida. This will gradually lead to anticyclonic winds across the entire area by the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and E swell will prevail south of 22N this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era